A good wakeup call to the good that is going on in the world; starts a bit dry and slow but succeeds in presenting concrete solutions for improving how we think about the world.
Background Info
I’m 99% sure I heard about Factfulness from someone on the Tim Ferriss podcast, but I can’t remember who. Regardless, after pulling up my local library’s online catalog and finding one copy available I almost giddily smashed the HOLD button. With my mouse cursor.
The book’s promise is to improve how we think by presenting facts that contradict popular narratives, as well as sharing methods for making better decisions. On the cover, Bill Gates claims Factfulness is “an indispensable guide to thinking clearly about the world.”
The book begins with the reader being quizzed on the overall status of issues in the world. Following the results, the author promises to take the reader on a journey of improving one’s critical thinking abilities. He mentions how his son and daughter-in-law helped him make better visualizations to tell the story and get his audience to act on it. I was about 30% correct on the quiz, so I was excited to learn and improve my thought processes.
However, after about 70 pages I was ready to give up. The presentation was pretty dry and stuffy, and I hadn’t seen any evidence of the promised visualizations that would make the data easier to act on. I felt the author kept building up and building up without delivering on his promises.
So one night as I set the book down I had a sudden thought: there was probably a TED talk by this guy I could watch instead of reading the book! (See, my critical thinking ability was improved!)
My guess was correct; there is a TED talk by Hans Rosling so I watched it, got inspired to dig in deeper, and went back to the book.
I got through it eventually, and here are my thoughts on each chapter:
Chapter Summary
The Gap Instinct
- Be aware that most news articles and studies talk about huge gaps, when in reality the gaps in most of the world are shrinking, or nonexistent.
The Negativity Instinct
- People talk about bad things more often, so we don’t see the good going on (see also Mean World Syndrome). Even when bad things do happen they often aren’t as bad as they used to be (he cites data showing deaths from natural disasters going down drastically, despite media coverage going the other way).
- We’re more likely to think that things are bad now but used to be good before.
Straight Line
- Things don’t go in straight lines forever (looking at you, stock market!) Trends follow various shapes, slopes, curves, etc. Look for patterns and expect change.
Fear
- This seemed redundant with Negativity Instinct, but it’s more focused on scary events. Just remember that the world isn’t as scary as you think, and that the risks of highly publicized events (shark attack, plane crash) aren’t as high as they seem.
- One good bit of advice was the wait to make decisions until the panic subsides.
Size
- Watch out for huge or tiny numbers. Try to control, convert, and compare; e.g., define a “rate per person” when evaluating something across different countries
- Good discussion about the 80/20 rule (aka Pareto’s Law); look for the items that will give you the most output (a lesson I’d previously learned from the Tim Ferris book/blog)
Generalization
- Split large groups into smaller categories so you don’t overgeneralize. Saying or hearing “40% of Americans are obese” is like saying 40% of fish taste better with lemon- but which fish taste better with lemon? Find the distribution of obesity across age, state, income, education, job, activity level, etc. and keep digging (just be careful about correlation vs causation if you try to make declarative statements).
- Groups can have differences inside them, as well as similarities across multiple groups.
- Majority is an overused term that could be anywhere between 51 and 99 percent.
- (This one I thought was particularly good) Beware of vivid examples. I took a few classes on rhetoric in college and giving an example can persuade your audience; don’t let one example speak for an entire data set.
- (Another really good one) Don’t assume all people are idiots. Be humble and ask why someone thought it would be smart to do [insert thing you think is dumb here] and you might be surprised.
Destiny
- Change happens slowly, so don’t write off a group because of an experience from years ago.
- Culture changes, and will continue to change. Think about your grandparents’ view of the world compared to young people today.
Single Perspective
- This was the BEST chapter in the book. If you can only read one chapter, read this one. Period.
- I’ll add my own take to say: you’re more wrong than you know, since most likely you’re only taking your own perspective on things, or you’re taking the perspective of someone who only has his or her own perspective of it. Broaden your sources, and admit when you don’t know things,
- Don’t try to apply your skill set to all problem sets. Your skills are most likely only good for a certain set of problems; e.g., you wouldn’t want a dentist changing your tires, right? Look at what professionals in other fields are saying and both cross-examine and -pollinate.
Blame
- Watch out when one person “is to blame” (good or bad!) for something (similar to the above, when one story/example is used to define a group). People are both simple (in that we have the same needs and are pretty predictable) as well as complex (in that we have unique cultural contexts and often behave illogically), and an issue can extend beyond an individual.
- Look for the system, not the hero or villain.
Urgency
- If you’re pressed for something, ask for more time. It’s hard to analyze objectively when you’re in flight-or-fight mode.
- Ask for data, and then vet it. Make sure it’s relevant and accurate.
- There are too many fortune tellers, from the stock market to the doomsday preppers. A good rule of thumb is to be aware of any prediction that doesn’t acknowledge it could be wrong for n reasons.
- Finally, small improvements are usually more effective than drastic ones. This applies to both personal habits (looking at you, New Years Resolutions) as well as organizational change or the wealth of a nation (yo, Adam Smith!)
Factfulness in Practice
- This was the final, summary chapter, and I thought it well put together. I especially enjoyed the list of “things we should teach our children.” Humility (that we could be wrong about things) and curiosity (seeking out right information) are critically important attributes for us and our future generations.
- Use dollarstreet.org to show kids the differences between countries, not stereotypes or news footage.
Final Thoughts
Overall, Factfulness is a good case study for presenting a better world than what is constantly sold to us by the news, social media, and latest gossip. If you can get past the initial dryness and apply its lessons then you’ll be a change agent in your profession, home, and hopefully the world.
Would I recommend just watching the TED talk and leaving it at that? Probably not. Get the book at your local library and peruse the stories and summaries and you’re more likely to have the ideas and lessons stick with you. I found the pictures of differences between standard of living levels (1 through 4) especially enlightening.